Events: in June 15th, the United States government issued a list of goods added to the tariff, which would impose a tariff of 25% on imports of about $50 billion from China, of which about $34 billion of goods were imposed on tariff measures from July 6, 2018, and public opinion began to be solicited for about $16 billion. With the approval of the State Council, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice to decide that 25% tariffs should be imposed on 659 imported commodities originating in the United States for about 50 billion dollars. 545 items, including agricultural products, automobiles and aquatic products, have been imposed on the tariff of about $34 billion from July 6, 2018. The calculation formula after the tax is added: tariff = tariff, tariff and tariff rate.

Industry impact: (1) in the projects implemented in July 6, 2018, the commodities affecting the agriculture, animal husbandry and food and beverage industry mainly include meat products (pork, beef, chicken goose, etc.), aquatic products (cod fish, shrimp, etc.), dairy products (whey, big bag powder, cheese, cream and so on, but infant formula milk powder is not included in the tariff), nuts, Corn, yellow soybean / black soybean, alfalfa and so on; (2) from the import quantity, China's imports of meat products, aquatic products, dairy products, nuts and other commodities are relatively small in the total consumption of our country. After the tariff, the price rises, the market competitiveness is weakened, the domestic producers are weakened, and (3) China's soybean, Corn, alfalfa and other products have a high degree of dependence on imports, and the United States is an important source of imports. As the basic feed and raw material of agriculture, animal husbandry, food and beverage industry, such as soybean and alfalfa, the price increase will be carried to the grain, oil, meat, dairy products and other industries downstream, if the price of the downstream products can be carried out smoothly, the profit of the processing enterprises will be promoted in the usual case, and vice versa will be made. Damaged; (4) the commodities that affect the textile and garment industry mainly include uncombed cotton, cotton lint and other commodities. After adding the tariff, the import cost of the general trade cotton is obviously improved, and the domestic enterprises will buy more Australian cotton, West Africa cotton and Brazil cotton. In addition, it is worth paying attention to whether the Sino US trade frictions will further affect the textile and clothing fields. (5) we are optimistic about the pricing ability of the leading enterprises, such as the sea sky taste, the Yili stock and so on. Its brand and channel competitiveness is strong, and its advantages are highlighted.

       Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials, upward pressure on prices exceed expectations, macro-economic growth slows down, and Sino US trade frictions continue to escalate.

Source: China net